The aging debt problem
Fresh IOUs have a clear path: remind, request, receive. But old IOUs—the ones that have lingered for months—enter a different category entirely. The social rules change. The stakes shift. The math becomes emotional.
You’re not alone in this limbo. Research on informal lending reveals a consistent pattern: the longer a debt ages, the less likely it is to be repaid.
After six months, you’re looking at an 82% chance of never seeing that money again. Not because your friend is a bad person—but because of how human memory, motivation, and social norms interact with time.
Sources: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Payment Choice, 2023; informal lending patterns derived from behavioral economics research on payment commitment decay.